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Daily Kos: Axis of Evil: What Comes Next?

Daily Kos

Axis of Evil: What Comes Next?

Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 05:47:33 AM PST

From the Times (UK) by subscription:

US sets sights on toppling Iran regime
By Michael Binyon and Bronwen Maddox

Re-elected Bush would act to foment revolt, says senior official
THE US will mount a concerted attempt to overturn the regime in Iran if President Bush is elected for a second term.

It would work strenuously to foment a revolt against the ruling theocracy by Iran's "hugely dissatisfied" population, a senior official has told The Times.

The United States would not use military force, as in Iraq, but "if Bush is re-elected there will be much more intervention in the internal affairs of Iran", declared the official, who is determined that there should be no let-up in the Administration's War on Terror.

To what extent the official, known to be hawkish, was speaking for the White House was unclear, but his remarks are nevertheless likely to cause alarm in Europe. He hinted at a possible military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities, saying that there was a window of opportunity for destroying Iran's main nuclear complex at Bushehr next year that would close if Russia delivered crucial fuel rods. To destroy Bushehr after the delivery would cause huge environmental damage. The rods would allow the Iranians to obtain enough plutonium for many dozens of nuclear weapons, he said.

Making noises like this unsettles everyone. Kerry as President may or may not actually act preemptively, but clearly Bush has shown himself to be capable of monumental stupidity when it comes to foreign policy. Losing the trust of the people by misleading them is just as true overseas as it is at home. That makes every subsequent move all the more suspect. And people wonder why the 'toxic Texan' is not so popular overseas?

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  •  Great, just great (none / 1)

    Sometimes I wonder if Bush isn't actively trying to strenghten terrorist networks by giving them causes to rally around.

    Of course, there's that old saw about not attributing f*ckups to malicious intent when sheer incompetence is enough to explain everything, but the number of screwups, and their magnitude (and the way they repeat them over and over), makes me wonder if they're really that stupid, or if it's intentional

    Always be sincere, even if you don't mean it.

    by justinb on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 05:51:17 AM PST

    •  more from the article (none / 1)

      Note this analysis from this Blair-friendly paper;

      The official dismissed suggestions that Washington would hesitate to seek regime change in Iran, given the problems it has encountered in Iraq, and Colin Powell, a restraining influence as Secretary of State, will not be serving a second term. It is less clear how the Administration could foment a revolution without uniting Iranians against "the Great Satan".

      The official claimed that more than its dislike of the mullahs, the Iranian population was dissatisfied with an economy that did not have jobs for the young: 60 per cent of the population is under 24.

      There is little organised opposition inside the country and financing it directly or through front organisations would probably play into the hands of the mullahs anyway.

      Aside from the stupidity, the article was clear that the 'senior official' was very insulting towards europe (France, Germany and jack straw personally). BushCo: assholes, every one of them.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by DemFromCT on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 06:00:47 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  So it's either Cheney or Rumsfeld? (none / 0)

        Don't like XOM and OPEC? What have YOU done to reduce your oil consumption? Hot air does NOT constitute a renewable resource!

        by Asak on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 06:15:32 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Sounds To Me Like (4.00 / 2)

          Undersecretary of State John Bolton.  This website will give you a capsule portrait of that particular Looney Tune:

          In January 2001, Jesse Helms endorsed Bolton: "John Bolton is the kind of man with whom I would want to stand at Armageddon, if it should be my lot to be on hand for what is forecast to be the final battle between good and evil in this world."

          According to everything else I've read about Bolton, Helms wasn't engaging in hyperbole there.  He really is that much of a nut.

          "L'enfer, c'est les autres." - Jean Paul Sartre, Huis Clos

          "L'enfer, c'est le GOP!" - JJB, from an idea by oratorio

          by JJB on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 06:41:42 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Bolton's resume also includes (none / 1)

            Storming into a room where ballots were being counted, saying, "I'm here to stop the vote," after the Supreme Court stopped the hand recount in Florida.

            The Detroit "Lions". 2008 NFL Pre-Season Champions.

            by Dump Terry McAuliffe on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 09:22:43 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  skd (none / 0)

              wow, he really sounds like a great republican and american.

              Sarah the Secessionist and John the Trophy Husband.

              by wastelandusa on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 10:41:16 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  There's more (none / 1)

                An excerpt from Carla Anne Robbins's story in the October 21, 2003, Wall Street Journal, entitled "Why U.S. Gave U.N. No Role in Plan To Halt Arms Ships":

                "In the past, Mr. Bolton has contended the U.S. wasn't legally obligated to pay its U.N. dues. Both international treaties and the U.N. charter are "simply 'political obligations,' " he wrote in a 1997 article for the American Enterprise Institute. He has also argued against the creation of a U.N.-backed International Criminal Court and argued that accords on human rights, the environment, labor, and public health were intentionally crafted to constrain American sovereignty.

                 

                The Detroit "Lions". 2008 NFL Pre-Season Champions.

                by Dump Terry McAuliffe on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 12:00:36 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  The Rest of the World (none / 0)

        Wonders why the "toxic Texan" is so popular here, Dem, at least if my correspondents can be trusted.
      •  US Accuses Iran in 9-11 (none / 0)

        http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/07/18/wiran18.xml&sSheet=/portal/2004 07/18/ixportaltop.html

        The Keane Whitewash commission not only covers up for government complcity in 9-11 attacks, now it is being used to justify more Orwellian wars.

        Failure to call Bush on the big lie of 9-11 is going to further endanger the entire planet.

        The Asia Times reports bin-Laden is in Iran:

        And it appears that he chose Iran, rather than Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan or China. A leading source says that shortly before the collapse of Kandahar, Mullah Omar called a meeting in the town at which the governor and important commanders were present. Mullah Omar briefly mentioned the war situation, explaining the reasons for the sudden retreat from Kabul. He stressed that given the heavy US carpet bombing, there would be no way to defend Kandahar, and so he had arranged for the safety of senior "guest" fighters and would announce the surrender of Kandahar shortly.

        The sources say that after this meeting bin Laden went to see Mullah Omar, along with a small group of Afghans and Arabs. Bin Laden's next destination was discussed, and it was not Chaman in Pakistan, as some reports have said, as it was infested with anti-Taliban militia.

        The sources point out that that Iranian border areas are a nest of the Mujahideen-i-Khalq, who are fighting a war against the government in Tehran. They are minority Sunnis, and they have good relations with some of the Afghan and Pakistani tribes. When the Iranian government has taken its regular crackdowns on the group, members have taken refuge in Pakistani or Afghani tribal areas.

        http://www.atimes.com/c-asia/CL19Ag01.html

        How long can we sit on our hands talking about justifications for phony wars? How long will the Democrats rubber stamp Bush's outrageous plan for total domination in Central Asia?

        This region has been rife with struggle for decades and the complicity of the US government in creating Al-Qa'Ida is common knowledge.

        I have been reading Steve Coll's book "Ghost Wars." Anyone else familiar with this work? So far I'm finding it hard to put down. Riveting.

    •  Well You have To Understand (4.00 / 11)

      that Bush is both stupid AND crazy. Really, genuinely crazy. And THAT should explain everything.

      I was talking to an old rancher the other day. We had gone to get help with a repair on something.  His wife a very sweet lady, invited us to come in for a "pop".

      When her husband joined us, we started very gently talking about Bush, very gently.  We have a rule that we bring that subject up at every possible occasion with everybody we meet.

      The old man shook his head and said he would not vote for Bush under any circumstances. I asked why and his answer surprised me.

      "He said  "Don't ever ride a pig-eyed horse or trust a pig-eyed man."  We laughed and asked him what he meant.

      He calmly replied that both pigeyed horses and men are crazy and dangerous. A pig eyed horse will throw you or stomp you because their brains don't work right. Same with a pigeyed man.

      "Just look at that man's eyes, so small and close together and you gotta know he's crazy. He'll blow us to Hell or Heaven.  I guess being pigeyed makes them dumb as a fence post, too. Their brains just ain't healthy."

      Old folk's wisdom works for me.

      You can't always tell the truth because you don't always know the truth - but you can always be honest.

      by mattman on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 06:13:02 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He's hardly the first (none / 1)

        "He said  "Don't ever ride a pig-eyed horse or trust a pig-eyed man."  We laughed and asked him what he meant.

        He calmly replied that both pigeyed horses and men are crazy and dangerous. A pig eyed horse will throw you or stomp you because their brains don't work right. Same with a pigeyed man.

        I've heard that before (about shrub) and long ago. I believe it too. I've had a little experience breeding pets and you'd be surprised what you can tell about an animal's character just by looking at it.

      •  Pig eyes (none / 0)

        But did you ask him if you can trust an actual pig?

        "Run, comrade, the old world is behind you!" -- Situationist graffito, 1968

        by Pesto on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 10:00:48 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  actual pigs, it depends (none / 0)

          Pigs are omnivores. They will eat people. (Plenty of Civil War horror stories about still-living casualties being munched on by pigs, not just rats, nightmares courtesy of Ambrose Beirce) There was a serial widow who fed her late husbands to her pigs, I once heard, true crime story.

          But pigs are distant, ancient kin to dogs and bears. They can be not just domesticated but tamed, and affectionate as any dog. (This makes eating the home-raised ones very hard, btw.)

          So these pigs can be trusted, just like Babe, they just can't trust you, though they don't know that.

          Another thing I noticed, watching both pigs and turkeys at a relative's farm recently, is that pigs will fight over food - and then it's over. Once the other pig has gotten its share, they all lie down like wart hogs and bask, and that's it. So for that peaceable inclination alone I would be inclined to agree wiht the claims of intelligence for pigs.

          Turkeys, OTOH, like chickens, will go for each other nonstop, out of some sort of pure cussedness, picking and pecking and picking at each other just for being there. I always imagine them going "Well EXCUUUUSE me for living, you turkey!" to each other.

          Turkeys are a lot more like people that way.

          "Don't be a janitor on the Death Star!" - Grey Lady Bast (change @ for AT to email)

          by bellatrys on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 01:08:03 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Mattman . . . (none / 0)

        I tried to give your post a 4-Excellent rating, though I'm not sure I did it correctly. I love it when threads like this become palimpsests and hints of the old Inivisible Republic come through.

        I shall not grow conservative with age -- Elizabeth Cady Stanton

        by ponderer on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 03:34:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  mattman (none / 0)

        Do you live anywhere near me?  I am in Oklahoma City.  I would love to buy you a drink or five and dinner.  Let me know.

        I just love your posts.  Keep it up.

        "It's been headed this way since the World began, when a vicious creature made the jump from Monkey to Man."--Elvis Costello

        by BigOkie on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 03:41:55 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Well Meaning Lunk Head (none / 0)

        is sort of a "meme." I personally think Bush is dumb like a fox.

        Speaking of Fox, check this out: http://mediamatters.org/items/200407140002

    •  Also stiring up big problems with China (none / 0)

      The US has sent seven aircraft carrier task groups into the strait between Taiwan and China - and then sent Condi Rice to China to try to damp down the fire caused by this unprecedented show of force in asia.  Each carrier has about 80-90 aircraft - about 600 total.  (I'm surprised the task forces didn't collide with each other in the narrow strait since each of the seven task forces has about 10 ships).

      More on this in todays post at The Left Coaster

      and here:

      Channel NewsAsia

      The Democratic Party: We the People (7801)

      by JimPortlandOR on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 09:49:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Well at least Iran is dangerous...unlike Iraq. (none / 1)

    Also, at least promoting an insurgency is better than invading.  I don't really see what's so bad about this to be quite honest, the Iran people are oppressed.  Under Bush we'd probably install some pro-business facist, but under Kerry maybe we'd get someone who's ok.

    How long has Bill O'Reilly not been watching me?

    by engray on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 06:00:14 AM PST

    •  Great, then we could reinstall the Shah (none / 1)

      For once, can't we just let the Iranians settle this themselves? At least they would be satisfied with someone they chose. But I think the real fear is that Iran may annex the Shiite areas of Iraq, dismembering that country. In any event, real Iraqi reconstruction is going to involve a great deal of help from Iran and the Iranians.

      Howard Dean Forever and a Day

      by CarolDuhart on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 06:03:03 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  What force? (4.00 / 2)

        We don't have anything to fight Iran with. Hell, we have grandparents in Iraq right now. Maybe we can enlist Eagle Scouts or send ROTC students and Sea Scouts.
        •  No Not Quite (none / 0)

          We still have some nursing homes to check out for call ups.

          Boy Scouts come later.

          (I was blown out when they called up one of Kerry's Band of Brothers - for active duty in Iraq, a man nearing 60.  I'm sure he's fit and all but sheeesh.)

          You can't always tell the truth because you don't always know the truth - but you can always be honest.

          by mattman on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 08:09:22 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Nukes, what else? (none / 0)

          I am certain Bush will take on Iran. This is a perpetual revolution for him and there is no way to stop it. As conventional forces will neither work nor be popular, his only option is a nuclear war. Crazy? I'm not.  
          •  Remember (none / 0)

            the Cheney PNAC plan is for multi theater war. We are already fighting proxy wars in Sudan and Colombia. Boxes of money and arms flowed into the region, and stinger missiles, heat seaking, can take out a helicoptor, or a tank. WMD is just a way of saying we need to get all the shit back that we gave these people to fight "communism" before we invade. Iraq, Afghanistan are excellent examples. So is Bosnia and Kososvo where we employed bin-Laden and Al-Qa'Ida to recruit and arm KLA terrorists. Colombia where we have DynCorp fighting an illegal genocidal war under the guise of a private contractor.  

            Also see the conclusions of the G8 summit in Sea Island and the recent NATO summit in Ankara.

            Conscription, the draft is imminent. Democrats keep saying we have to stay in Iraq. In fact they have endorsed the same plan that Bush just brokered with NATO.

            As North and South Korea move toward peace we will have to have some reason to keep a major force there.

            Geography does not change. The cops in this game have been directing traffic as far back as the Dutch East India Company. Shipping. The Silk Road. The Muslim world was once awash with the peaceful mysticism of Sufism and the Whirling Dervishes. Research the Oil industry in California as far back as WWI. Even the "developers" now in California. They need roads, cheap labor, water, electricity, communications, these are mass undertakings. These people do not wait around for government, especially democracy. Do you realize we bailed the entire Soviet economy out with 10 billion dollars? Iraq 90 billion, 52 billion of which is security. Do the math as they say. It's BS. Please, oppose war. Bombing is inefective as a military strategy, its genocide! The streets of Pakistan, India, Iran, Iraq are teeming with young people while we grapple with the aging of America.

            This is an existential crises for common people everywhere.

            Bush is right that this war is a clash of good vs. evil. As all war is. War requires hate. There are absolutes here ... History keeps repeating.

            This is even born out by military thinkers like Boyd. Faith based decision making does not work in battle. If we have a pragmatic plan for war that relies on firm objectives to achieve a legitimate goal ... I'm not seeing that ... are you?

            We have to have legitimacy to our core. We have to have a clear voice for change. Disarm, teach tolerance, share song, food, music, and build a sustainable future together for the children. Help people raise their young and purify the land.

            As the Sex Pistols so brazenly said: "The problem is you."

            I do not exempt myself.

            "Hey, you've got to hide your love away."

            You reap what you sow ... What you give is still what you get and love is not for keeping.

            If you want to be a Conscientious Objector, read the rules. You have to show that you have been working for your ideals in some capacity. They won't let you just up and claim it anymore.

    •  see quote above (3.66 / 3)

      Let's announce we're going to interfere with another country's internals. It's the fastest way to unite the country (and the world) against us.

      If that's what you want to do, please don't announce it in the European press.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by DemFromCT on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 06:03:26 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  What's So Bad About This? (4.00 / 2)

      It's interfering in the internal affairs of a sovereign nation, one that we already have of history of meddling with.  As already noted, the surest way to strengthen the hand of the mullahs is to start trying to overthrow them.  Not to mention that any move by us against them, whether pouring money into the country to fund dissident groups, or bombing their nuclear facilities, is bound to provoke a counterreaction by the Iranians that will doubtless be far more effective than what we do.  The possibilities for them to create problems in Iraq are far greater than our ability to effect change in Iran.  I would also guess the Iranians are pretty well armed, and if worse came to worse they would present quite a danger to American naval vessels in the Persian Gulf.

      I'm guessing this official is John Bolton, or perhaps even Pearle or Wolfowitz.  It sounds nutty enough to be any of the three, Bolton seems to be particularly devoid of rationality.  Don't think for a moment that BushCo. isn't planning to do this if they're returned to power.  In fact, even if Kerry wins in November, they have over two months to provoke something with the Iranians that will present the incoming administration with a crisis designed to destroy it at its inception.
       

      "L'enfer, c'est les autres." - Jean Paul Sartre, Huis Clos

      "L'enfer, c'est le GOP!" - JJB, from an idea by oratorio

      by JJB on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 06:27:18 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I can't believe (4.00 / 4)

      that you are swallowing this spin.

      There has been an ongoing struggle for democracy going on in Iran for many years. The elected government has been struggling w/ the religious conservatives to move the country toward more freedom. Our attack on Iraq has actually set their movement back.

      ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Ebrahim Yazdi, who was Ayatollah Khomeini's first foreign minister, is director of the freedom movement of Iran, an outlawed reformist group. He got a Ph.D. in the United States, and taught at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston for many years. He is currently under indictment for "acting against the security of the state," and has been questioned by revolutionary tribunals 46 times since returning from the United States last year after surgery for cancer. Yet he insists the political situation here is improving.

      EBRAHIM YAZDI: Well, by any standard, Iran is more democratic than any other state in our neighborhood, and, also, Iran has gone through a historical revolution. Then, look back, when September 11 was... New York was attacked. Many Iranians, in the streets, they took initiatives. They observed a vigil by lighting the candles in the streets.

      ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: What about your own personal case? You've been charged with acting against the state. Could you go to prison soon?

      EBRAHIM YAZDI: This is what they wanted, but, you know, to have power is not always equal to be able to use the power. I refer to all of it as a sign of a new happening in Iran. We are getting closer and closer to a turning point in our own recent history.

      This sabre rattling undermines the reformist movement in Iran.

      Consider where the reports of these leaks are appearing first: Newsweek, Time, NY Daily News and the NY Post. BushCO cheerleaders ALL.

      Don't believe the hype.

      •  Iranian exiles (1.33 / 3)

        I basically agree with this, but there is one additional factor to consider in Iran now that was not present during Mussadiq.  That is the Iranian exile community, which is vociferously anti-clerical.  

        The exiles played a major role in last summer's student unrest in Iran, and they are good at using technology such as satellite dishes, the internet, and SMS messages.

        The obvious question is whether the exiles are out of touch with Iranians themselves, rather like the Cuban community after Castro came to power.  I think not, however.  

        Twenty-five years have passed since the revolution in Iran, unlike in Cuba during the Bay of Pigs.  The student unrest, as well as general liberalization in Iran (including a growing fascination with the former monarchy) suggest that the push for reform within Iran is authentic.

        Therefore, Iranians are unlikely to perceive the exiles' use of technology to push their message as propaganda, in which case it would not strengthen the clerics.  Whether this policy is what Bush has in mind, who knows?

        •  Yes (none / 1)

          but if WE start offering vocal support, promoting some Iranian Chalabi, our involvement will taint a genuine movement that seems to be growing out of the Iranian culture itself. ESPECIALLY if it's the Bush administration.

          We have a long history of backing some greedy corrupt faction that was kicked out by an enemy regime, and failing to support -- or undermining -- more progressive factions.

          Any overt involvement by the US government will be spun by the clerics as resembling South Africa's support of factions in Southern Africa.

      •  Iranian exiles, part 2 (none / 1)

        The other day my hairdresser, who is an Iranian exile and long-term US citizen, said her family is voting for Bush in hopes that he will take down the theocracy.

        I was shocked; I had assumed they were Democrats.

        I told her all they have to do is wait 3-4 years and the young people will do it for them, and do a far better job of it than the incompetents in the Bush administration.

        •  Interesting (none / 0)

          Most Iranians I know are against Bush because of Iraq, and they are no fans of Saddam...

          "I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty or give me death!" - Patrick Henry | Member since April04

          by alxt on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 08:31:12 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  This is lunacy! (4.00 / 4)

      Times have changed,  The days when America could just go in and foment revolution are long gone, what with mass communication such as Al-Jazeera and the internet, to say nothing of the economic power of Europe, China and India, which weren't factors in the '50s and '60s, and, of course, assymetric warfare, aka terrorism. It may be a unipolar world militarily, but not culturally or economically.  This is such a destabilizing thing to do, fraught with unintended consequences.

      I sometimes think these people never look at maps.  Iraq is the size of California.  Iran is three times thatsize, the size of the whole American West (without Texas).  And the terrain! And this place borders the former Soviet republics!   What are these guys thinking?  And if we are to believe the links between Chalabi and the Iranian mullahs, one could  suppose that this is what the mullahs think could unite their country behind them and alleviate all that youth unrest.  

      Once again, we will underestimate nationalism and overestimate how much people in other countries love us.  Just because a kid likes the internet, rock and roll and blue jeans doesn't mean he wants us to come in and mess around with his country.  Especially not after Iraq and Abu Ghraib.  If I trusted us to undermine the mullahs with the kind of moral force that the Eastern Europeans used, I might support this, but I have no confidence wehatsoever that a Bush regime would not create another fubar situation in a far more dangerous place.

      If you're going in the wrong direction and you stay the course, where, exactly, do you wind up?

      by Mimikatz on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 07:44:02 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Who can hurt who the most (none / 0)

      Iran has both Iraq and Afghanistan as bordering states.  

      Do we need to have Iran fomenting more trouble in those two places now, especially considering that Irans population is substantially bigger than Iraq and Afghanistan's combined?

      Add in Iran's capability for turning up the heat (thru Hezbollah) in Lebanon, the West Bank, and Gaza, and maybe they can hurt us far more than we can hurt them in the short run.  It not as though we have extra military forces to back up any initiatives we may take.  

      This is just dumb at this time.

      The Democratic Party: We the People (7801)

      by JimPortlandOR on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 09:54:21 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Iran IS dangerous (none / 0)

      Yes, Iran IS dangerous.

      No one who has been paying attention really doubts that they're developing, at the very least, a capacity to make nukes if not nukes themselves. They do support terrorists -- or, if you would like to call them something else, political and guerilla forces opposed to our interests. However, do you really expect the Bush administration will do this in a competent fashion? Heck, no! The people in the White House, in addition to being possibly insane are definitely incompetent. There's no way they could pull this off.

      Also, some here mention Iran's movement toward democracy and how we've hurt it through saber-rattling. I believe this is true to a limited extent. I think the average Iranian doesn't hate the U.S. and does want democratic rule. But, I don't believe all the reports that Iranians despise their current theocracy all that much. If they did, they'd be out on the streets, just like they were for the Shah. But, they're not there. Sure, some students have gotten their heads kicked in, newspapers shut down, all the usual oppression and human rights abuses. But, where is the real, actual mass movement against the mullahs? I don't think it exists. And I don't think we can create it, either, especially with this group of asses in the White House.

      That leaves the nukes. We've got satellites and time. When we see the plant getting ready for production -- ready to take in fuel rods -- then we can hit them. We may reach a point where we have no other alternative. I think the idea of the mullahs with nukes is totally unacceptable. I'm aghast that the Russians have been helping, but what can you do, y'know? In the meantime, time IS on our side. The IAEA and the UN have NOT been asleep at the wheel on this. Diplomatic alternatives are available, and, at least up until now, we've been using them, not to great effect. But it doesn't hurt to keep trying. Also, we have to be prepared that if we do hit their nuke sites then we very well may lose Iraq, completely and totally, along with a good number of U.S. forces (think tens of thousands dead and/or captured). It's an acceptable trade off, I think, to keep the nukes out of the mullahs' hands, but it is or ought to be a last-ditch, last-chance option.

      In the meantime, talking about it does nothing for us. It makes us, the U.S., look like war criminals and madmen, and it reduces our diplomatic options with Iran and the world. I guess I've come to expect this incompetence for the Bush administration.

      •  When I was in Iran (none / 1)

        Before 9/11, the regime of the mullahs was very invisible, while the women need to wear their chadors, it is not a very bleak place, and the people have pretty good lives, and according to most people, much better lives than they had under the shah.

        I didn't hide that I am American when I was there, and I never experienced any type of anti-American sentiment at all while I was there...

        I did see a small "down with USA" graffiti while I was there, but that was about it...

        "I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty or give me death!" - Patrick Henry | Member since April04

        by alxt on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 11:01:49 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Re: Iran IS dangerous (none / 0)

        I don't believe all the reports that Iranians despise their current theocracy all that much. If they did, they'd be out on the streets, just like they were for the Shah.

        I think the anti-clerical sentiment is authentic.  Merely because "they're not all out on the streets" does not itself demonstrate otherwise.  For example, no one in Eastern Europe was out on the streets until communism was on the verge of falling.  A Hungarian economist named Janos Kornai wrote a very game-theoretic explanation of this whole phenomenon, which I'd have do re-read myself to summarize, but basically the idea is that things read a tipping point after which they move very quickly.

        I agree about the Bushehr question.

      •  The US of A (none / 0)

        is dangerous.

        Lead by example.

        The only way to deter us is with nukes.

        These massive military expenditures for weapons systems are like a bank account. Renewed yearly.

        To join NATO a country must commit to spend a percentage of GDP on military.

        Why don't we let UN inspectors see all the secret stuff we're hiding? Why don't they let me and you, the people that paid for it, see it? Portions of the Securities Act of 1947 are still classified.

        Nuclear power is clean and safe compared to hyrdrocarbons.

        A war with Iran means fighting a human wave assault over the borders with Iraq, and facing heat seeking shoulder fired missiles that will take out a tank or a helicoptor. Even serious damage to oil and gas rigs and fields, pipelines and ports. It means drawing China into the war. As they will supply the weaponry that can truly damage heavy artillery.

        We will not nuke Iran. Too much stuff we need there on the ground already. We will need Pakistan on our side, and that has always been an interesting relationship to say the least.

        Iran Contra saw 60 Billion in illegal arms sales to Iran. We know what they have. Just as we knew what Saddam had ... we armed him. I can show you quotes from Kerry in 91 saying as much.

        It will be a war of attrition. Imagine a snake being eaten alive by ants.

        •  I stand corrected (none / 0)

          by Mark Robinowitz from http://www.oilempire.us :

          Nuclear power is clean and safe compared to hyrdrocarbons.
          >
          > No, it is at least as dangerous, if not more so.  It requires huge
          > amounts of coal power to process the uranium.  the only safe nuclear
          > power has a 93 million mile emergency evacuation zone.  Its source
          > rises in the morning and sets in the evening.  Nuclear radiation is
          > fundamentally incompatible with DNA based life.
          >

          My point was simply that anything seems safer than all these wars and global warming.

          Mark is correct, the sun is the best pure source.

  •  Who is in charge? (none / 0)

    The article attributes this comment to a rogue neo-con.   Is it?   Is this someone straying off the farm, or is this an intentional leak?

    Is it intended to shore up support for this administration, by convincing hawkish voters that they need to vote BushCo in order to keep the world safe from an imminent threat from Iran.  You know, sorry about the last "I" country that we invaded, hey, all those "I" countries sound pretty much alike:  Ira-Q, Ira-N, see?   pretty similar spelling, same area, our intelligence was just slightly off last time, but we've really got it right this time.   You can trust us.

    Fool me once, shame on your, or me, fool me... that is, if you fool us, again, then...

    •  this is a european audience (none / 0)

      not a Texas venue. I have no idea who the official was, but Bronwen Maddox, the foreign affairs editor, has no great love for the Bushies (she writes a daily column).

      The tone of the article is incredulous throughout, from a normally sympathetic paper.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by DemFromCT on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 06:08:24 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Limbaugh Mixed Up Iran and Iraq (none / 0)

      After the Abu Ghraib photos came out, I once heard Limbaugh say that what the commentators were saying about Arabs being shamed by nakedness did not apply to Iraqis, because they are not Arabs.  He had to correct himself after the break, saying he had confused Iraq with Iran.

      The influence of the [executive] has increased, is increasing, and ought to be diminished.

      by lysias on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 06:50:52 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  neo con (none / 0)

      means new conservative, referring to people that were Democrats and are the neocons. Reagan Dems.

      This is a dangerous misnomer.

      These are the same Right Wing Nazis that have been teaching hate and intolerance for years.

      Follow the money and follow the hate. War needs hate.

      War is wrong. It's not the kind of thing where OK, this guy is wrong and this guy is less wrong, nobody is right in war.

      Geronimo once said, "I never do wrong without a cause." What he is really saying is he never does wrong. If this were true he would not need a cause.

      The good book does not say thou shalt not kill unless you sold them poison gas in the Eighties.

  •  9/11 commission - Iran (none / 0)

    It appears the 9/11 commission will be releasing incriminating evidence aqainst Iran.  From CNN:

    TIME Magazine reported on its website Friday that a U.S. official told the magazine the commission uncovered evidence suggesting between eight and 10 of the 14 hijackers involved in gaining control of the four aircraft used on September 11 passed through Iran in the period from October 2000 to February 2001. (Full story)

    The senior official also told TIME the report will note that Iranian officials approached al-Qaeda leadership after the bombing of the USS Cole and proposed a collaborative relationship in future attacks on the U.S. But that offer was turned down by bin Laden because he did not want to alienate his supporters in Saudi Arabia, TIME reported.

    •  asdf (none / 1)

      I always find amazement that the Bush administration tries to tie the smallest shred of 9/11 to any country he wants to invade.

      This overlooks the gargantuan pile of evidence impeaching Saudi Arabia, naturally.

      "Strength and wisdom are not opposing values" - Bill Clinton.

      by RAST on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 06:45:17 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  top story on Fox News this AM (none / 0)

        The top story on Fox News this morning is the "Iran - 9/11 Connection".  They pitched it in the listing of top stories at the top of the news hour.  Then they turned to it for their first story.  They said there is "startling new evidence" of a connection between Iran and 9/11.  Then they talked about the 8 people who had visited Iran during that time period (late 2000 or early 2001).  

        They also gave two rumors of other ways that Al Queda may have connections with Iran or Hezbollah, but said there wasn't conclusive evidence of either.

        I don't usually watch Fox, but maybe the "Outfoxed" parties tomorrow inspired me to check it out.

        •  Of course it's the top story (none / 0)

          I could already picture Roger Ailes creaming his very expensive boxers over this when it came across his desk.

          "Loyalty to the country always. Loyalty to the government when it deserves it." - Mark Twain

          by soultaco on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 01:43:11 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  So? (4.00 / 2)

      "between eight and 10 of the 14 hijackers involved in gaining control of the four aircraft used on September 11 passed through Iran in the period from October 2000 to February 2001"

      They also passed through Germany, England, Canada, New Jersey, Florida, Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Maine, Massachusetts, and New York, among other places.

      Also Prague, if you believe Cheney.

      If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich.--JFK, inaugural, 1961

      by Mnemosyne on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 08:12:45 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  More hypocrisy... (4.00 / 5)

    We're upset with Iran for supposedly encouraging terrorist acts against us.  But, of course, it's perfectly OK for us to go about encouraging rebellion and terrorist acts against them.  This administration continues to disgust me on a daily basis.  

    Don't like XOM and OPEC? What have YOU done to reduce your oil consumption? Hot air does NOT constitute a renewable resource!

    by Asak on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 06:14:17 AM PST

  •  HA HA (none / 1)


    "Boy that sure was a typo fuckup" -
                                  NSC Report Typist
  •  Ya know? (none / 0)

    If Bush had chosen topple the g'ment of Iran instead of Iraq, the world might actually be a safer place. Now, we have neither the resources, nor will, to deal with a country that could actually pose some threat.

    This is at the core of Bush's 'credibility issues'. Rather than bring those responsible for 9/11 to justice, he chose to invade a country that posed little (if any) threat - but featured a well known 'bad guy'. Good name recognition, as they say.

    I am long convinced that the primary reason to invade Iraq was naked politic, with no regard for security. Bush could appear 'tough' by kicking the crap out of an Arab country that was economicly and militarily in shambles. The combination of a cartoon 'bad guy', and little chance of substantial military retaliation, was irresistable to the political calculators that run this White House.

    The body count prior to 'Mission Accomplished' supports this. The body count since also supports this.

    By definition, policy decisions demand long term thinking. Political decisions typically avoid it, focusing instead on the needs of the present. As we know, there was no planning beyond a quick military victory. Opinions of the likely aftermath were roundly ignored, if not ridiculed. They contradicted Bush's need of the present.

    I do not discount other reasons for this war - oil, cronyism, etc - but I am convinced the underlying motive was strictly political. War President, anyone?

    •  Do I Read You Correctly (4.00 / 4)

      If I assume you think overthrowing the Teheran regime would have been a good idea?  I hope not.  First of all, a review of the last 55 years shows that this is a dreadful idea if only because it has repurcussions that end up doing us far more damage in the long run than the short term benefits (if any) are worth.  This country severely damaged its reputation in the Middle East when it overthrew the legally elected government of Mohammed Mossadegh in 1953, and we ended up setting in motion the long chain of events that resulted in the triumph of the ayatollahs and mullahs.  The coup we fomented in Guatemala in 1954 similarly turned popular opinion against us in Latin America.  No matter how we might have changed our policies with regard to those regions (and its doubtful we made any real changes of substance), we weren't trusted, and for excellent reason.  The only thing that saved our reputation during the Cold War was that no matter how badly we behaved, the Soviets and Communist Chinese were always demonstrably worse than we were.  Now that we're the world's sole remaining superpower, we can no longer look not-so-bad by comparison with anyone else.

      Even assuming that we are at all justified in destabilizing and overthrowing the governments of other countries (a point I am not willing to concede, except for argument's sake) the country we should be directing our efforts towards would seem to be Pakistan's wobbly military dictatorship, not Iran, which actually has the rudiments of a democratic form of government and can be depended upon to behave with at least of modicum of adherence to international law and the rules of diplomacy.  The Pakistanis, on the other hand, work hand in glove with al-Qaeda and have actively traded nuclear weapons technlogy in return for favors from other rogue states.

      At any rate, I don't want this country going around the world destabilizing other governments.  We've done too much of this sort of thing already, and it has gotten us far more grief than it was worth.  Not to mention the misery it has caused for the unfortunate citizens of the countries we've interfered with.

      "L'enfer, c'est les autres." - Jean Paul Sartre, Huis Clos

      "L'enfer, c'est le GOP!" - JJB, from an idea by oratorio

      by JJB on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 07:00:45 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  asdf (none / 1)

        If I assume you think overthrowing the Teheran regime would have been a good idea?

        I doubt I would have thought that, but an action like would have been more justified than invading Iraq.

        Would I have supported violating Iran's borders to strike al qaida training camps? If the right evidence had been presented and with UN support, absolutely. The same for Pakistan. That would have been more effective than invading a country that had nothing to do with al qaida. IMHO, International support for an effort like that would have been much more likely. But, that's all hindsight and couldawouldashoulda.

        It's all off the table now. Popular and international support would not abide further military actions. The military is stretched too thin for further military actions. Don't get me wrong, I do not believe military action is the solution to terrorism. But, I do think it should be a card in our hand. Bush has squadered that card and reduced our ability to fight actual terrorists - for short sighted political gain.

  •  One read on this (4.00 / 3)

    I think what this shows, ironically, is how much the Bush administration hawks know that Iraq is a fiasco.

    They are now seeing that the invasion of Iraq is most likely leading to a much more strengthened Iran -- a strength that the U.S. created. Their response, of course, it to talk -- anonymously and brazenly -- about invading Iran, rather than trying to fix our mistakes in Iraq. But such talk actually shows them registering, in their own squalid way, how all their pipedreams about Iraq have gone miserably astray.

    "We have found the weapons of mass destruction" -- George Bush, May 30, 2003

    by awol on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 06:28:14 AM PST

  •  The Premise Is Ridiculous (none / 0)

    on the face of it.  If BushCo had been able to do it, they would have done it already.

    And we certainly aren't going to invade them. We are up to our asses in trouble in Iraq and Afghanistan right now. In both cases all we have accomplished is getting our soldiers killed and destabilizing everything in the general vicinity.

    We're already bogged down in two countries with a badly weakened military. Wanna go for three?

    As for the bombing option - no way.  We bomb them, they go after our forces in Iraq. Not enough resistence there already? Try bombing and see what happens to our forces.

    Not to mention we'd be on our own. No fig leaf for that.  The only one who benefits is Israel who would just LOVE for us to do it.

    Sorry, but they are gonna have to do it themselves, if they want it done.

    Kerry is not crazy like Bush is.
     

    You can't always tell the truth because you don't always know the truth - but you can always be honest.

    by mattman on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 06:30:26 AM PST

    •  Hey, don't you want to relive the glory days... (none / 0)

      The Premise Is Ridiculous on the face of it.  If BushCo had been able to do it, they would have done it already.

      And we certainly aren't going to invade them.

      ...of the Cold War?

      If they were to make serious moves towards a rampage around the world other countries incuding former allies will not stand still to watch it happen. They will be forced to build up their militaries just to have a counter to a U.S. that's spun out of control.

  •  Oh darn.... (none / 0)

    I put $200 on Syria in October.  Looks like I should have put it on Iran instead.  Darn.

    Oh well, live and learn.

    "Strength and wisdom are not opposing values" - Bill Clinton.

    by RAST on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 06:51:13 AM PST

  •  Bush Invades Wrong Country (none / 0)


    I can't wait to see that NYT headline tommorow.
  •  See This For What It Is -- A Stick To Beat Kerry (4.00 / 5)

    The Bushies began beating the war drums for Iraq back in September 2002 -- perfectly timed to show what wimps and traitors the Democrats were by not getting on board. So now it's July 2004, and we hear the first "leak" about Iran. Shall we write the headlines together?
    "BUSH SEES IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT -- PROMISES ACTION"
    "BUSH CHIDES KERRY FOR IGNORING IRAN NUKE THREAT"
    "DEBATE CLASH -- BUSH PROMISES TO "TAKE OUT" IRANIAN NUKES, SAYS KERRY LEAVES US VULNERABLE"
    "BUSH SAYS CHOICE CLEAR -- LET IRAN BLACKMAIL US, OR TAKE ACTION NOW"

    This "leak" is the some kid of shit we heard right before the Iraq drumbeat. Get ready.

    •  It could go both ways (none / 0)

      Doesn't this also serve as a stick to beat Bush? Here's a report saying that the whole time it was IRAN, not Iraq, we should've been going after! This "leak" makes them look like idiots. The new meme: "We invaded the wrong damn country!"

      "Loyalty to the country always. Loyalty to the government when it deserves it." - Mark Twain

      by soultaco on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 01:45:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  asdf (none / 0)

        Doesn't this also serve as a stick to beat Bush?

        That's the first thing I thought.  If Bush goes after Kerry with this Kerry should pick up the stick and solidly thump Bush.  

        "Strength and wisdom are not opposing values" - Bill Clinton.

        by RAST on Sun Jul 18, 2004 at 07:52:48 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Japan, China and Iranian Oil (4.00 / 3)

    Japan must ensure its Iranian oil supply'

    * Resource-poor country is caught between the desire to deal with Iran and pressure from US

    TOKYO: Japan's Trade Minister Shoichi Nakagawa said on Monday that Tokyo must balance its oil needs against concerns over Iran's nuclear programme in talks to develop Iran's Azadegan oilfield, but he sidestepped the issue of whether a deadline had been set for a decision. "We need to ensure our oil supply, but as the only country that has suffered from an atomic bombing, we cannot be unconcerned about nuclear weapons," Nakagawa told Reuters in an interview. "We must balance these in handling this issue."

    http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_9-12-2003_pg4_15

    From the ASEAN:

    The 22nd AMEM+3 (ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting + China, Japan and Republic of Korea), which was held in Manila on June 9, has discussed these core issues and reached an understanding to work toward an effective solution for the energy security issues in the future. Energy has become the most valuable commodity in the international arena and it is high time that Asian countries work together toward attaining the energy security of the region. ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) is a net importer of oil and 60% of its primary energy consumption is based on imports. The case is same with the People's Republic of China, Japan, the Republic of Korea and even India; only the percentage of dependency differs. Most important, the Asian countries must strengthen their relationship with the Persian Gulf countries and adopt a proactive energy policy by diversifying their energy resources.

    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/FG10Dk01.html

    Shipbuilding, Hmmm ...

    In the evening of June 14, workers crowded in the dock of Dalian New Shipbuilding Heavy Industries Co., Ltd, witnessing the sailing out of the 300,000-ton VLCC (very large crude carrier) that they built personally. Many of the workers had tears in their eyes.  

    Dalian New Shipbuilding Heavy Industries Co., Ltd, as the trump subsidiary enterprise of China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, has spent 6 years building 5 VLCCs for National Iranian Oil Company. The five VLCCs have now all been delivered. Thus, China's shipbuilding industry moves towards an important transition.  

    "Being able to build VLCCs means the capability to build aircraft carriers" is a well-recognized saying in the world's shipbuilding industry. The capability to build 300,000-ton VLCCs has already become a gauge to measure the capability of a shipbuilding factory and even a nation's shipbuilding. Since the launch of the world's first single-hull VLCC in Japan in 1966, the third generation, namely, double-hull VLCCs, has been developed in 1990s. The design and construction of the VLCC is almost monopolized by Japan and Korea whose backbone shipbuilding factories all have made outstanding achievements of building 60 to 70 VLCCs

    http://en.ce.cn/Insight/200407/04/t20040704_1170409.shtml

    Sanctions, we don't need no stinking sanctions!

    The giant Anglo-Dutch oil group Shell has signed a long-awaited $800m deal with Iran to develop two offshore oil fields.
    Shell Exploration secured the agreement in Tehran with the National Iranian Oil Company to redevelop the Soroosh and Nowrooz oil fields.

    Shell has said it did not consider the threat of US sanctions an obstacle to investing in Iran. Washington regards Iran as a sponsor of terrorism.

    11/14/1999 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/the_economy/519688.stm

    More:

    The deal signed in Teheran to exploit the offshore site of Balal follows close businesslike co-operation between Iran, France and Canada.

    It is worth $300m and forsees an operation lasting up to six years. All three partners have shown a complete disregard for the Sanctions Act, introduced to try to scare off potential investors in Iran's rich oil and gas fields.

    'US can bid for future projects'

    A French Foreign Ministry spokesman said simply that France did not recognise any global reach of American legislation; the Canadian company said it had the full support of the Canadian Government, while the latest word from Iran - perhaps a lttle mischeviously - was that American companies were free to bid for future projects.

    This latest victory in Iran's campaign to show up the impotence of the American legislation follows a similar deal with Elf and the Italian company Agip last month.

    All the Americans could do on that occasion was to express concern and disappointment - cold comfort for their increasingly frustrated oil companies watching lucrative contracts pass them by.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/311818.stm

    Do we already have the go ahead for war?

    Shortly before I left Washington for the summer (in the good old days whose passing I regret, few stayed in Washington in summertime), my informal intelligence network gave me an interesting report: Iran was beginning to mass troops on the Iran-Iraq border. Did this portend overt Iranian intervention in Iraq? I said I didn't think so. Events in Iraq are not unfavorable to Iran, and the risks of direct intervention would be great.

    However, there is a potential situation that could lead to Iranian intervention: if it were in response to an American-Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. Such an attack may very well be on the agenda as the "October Surprise," the distraction George Bush desperately needs if the debacle in Iraq is not to lead to his defeat in November.

    There is little doubt that Iran has a nuclear weapons program, one that is operating under forced draft to produce a nuclear deterrent as quickly as possible. Iran, along with everyone else in the world, knows that the best way to be safe from an American attack is to have nukes. Even the most howling neo-cons show little appetite for a war with North Korea.

    The problem is that, while an Iranian nuclear capability may be directed at deterring the United States, it also poses a mortal threat to Israel. Israel is not known for sitting quietly while such threats develop. It is a safe bet that Israel is planning a strike on known Iranian nuclear facilities, and that such a strike will take place. The question is when?

    http://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/lind_7_8_04.htm

    •  Bunker Busters? (none / 0)

      I don't mean to ruin anyone's day, weekend, but let's hope these sick fucks aren't thinking of using some of these - Nuclear Bunker Busters, Mini-Nukes, and the US Nuclear Stockpile on Iran's underground Nuclear facilities.

      The thought makes me wretch, but I can't help but beleive it's not beyond them.

      We've got to get these wingnuts out of power and their fingers away from weapons like this.

      I am a liberal - I question authority, ALL authority.

      by Pescadero Bill on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 09:22:45 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Hah!!!! (none / 0)

      Once again, oil seems to be a top issue.  Could it be that Bushco is just pissed off because all of these other nations are getting in on the Iranian oil bonanza?  We muct stop these non-American companies that have no connection to Halliburton!  </sarcasm>

      "It's been headed this way since the World began, when a vicious creature made the jump from Monkey to Man."--Elvis Costello

      by BigOkie on Sat Jul 17, 2004 at 03:45:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Pipelineistan 9-11's Oily Fire (none / 0)

        Original Subject   Kuwaiti Islamist says Bush has ulterior motives  
        Original Date   19 Feb 2002 06:06:46 (EST)  
        Original Sender   Lebanon Daily Star (lebanon_daily_star@tides2000.org)  

        `The United States always needs external wars'

        Hisham Aldiwan

        Special to The Daily Star

        LONDON: The United States could end up abandoning some of its traditional allies in the Gulf and Middle East in the course of its "war on terror," one of the Gulf's leading Islamist intellectuals. says

        In the view of Abdullah al-Nafisi, Washington is on the warpath for reasons that go far beyond retaliation for the Sept. 11 attacks, and can be expected to restructure its regional alliances in the process ­ with the hard-line anti-Arab/Muslim governments of Israel and India as its two favored partners.

        And as America's behavior increasingly becomes a domestic political liability for various Arab governments allied to it, Washington may opt to "abandon them to their people's anger at their subservience to the US and their submission to its economic, financial and political demands," the influential Kuwaiti Islamist academic and former opposition MP suggested in an interview aired recently on the Al-Jazeera Satellite Channel.

        Nafisi ­ whose outspokenness has previously landed him in trouble with his country's government and who currently heads a London-based think tank ­ the Ibn-Rushd Center ­ portrayed America's military intervention in Afghanistan as being motivated by a range of factors not directly related to Al-Qaeda, which also make it likely that it will launch more wars in its aftermath.

        One of those factors is its quest to control the abundant oil and gas resources of Central Asia and the Caspian Basin, said Nafisi, adding that in order to bypass Iran and Russia, Washington's favored route for exporting those resources is by pipeline via Afghanistan to the Pakistani coast.

        He recalled that prior to Sept. 11, the American oil company Unocal ­ which hosted a visit to the United States by the Taleban government's minister for mines and industry, Ahmad Jan ­ tried to persuade Afghanistan's former rulers to let it build a pipeline through Afghanistan. According to Nafisi, the "ideological and religious" hostility to America of the Taleban leadership prompted Mullah Mohammad Omar to decide that no oil and gas exploration or pipeline rights could be awarded to "the Americans." It later transpired that the Taleban was likely to award the pipeline deal to an Argentinean investor, with whom Jan negotiated an agreement which was "on the verge" of being concluded when the suicide hijackings took place in New York and Washington.

        "The Taleban had to be removed from power, and accordingly there had to be a Sept. 11. There is a terrible complementarity between America's economic interests and the decision to declare war on the Taleban," Nafisi remarked.

        http://tides.carebridge.org/WPU/77WPU20FEB02.htm#Kuwaiti_Islamist_Says

        Don't cry for Bush Argentina.

        http://www.motherjones.com/news/feature/2000/03/argentina.html

        Also Google Tri Border Region Terrorism.

        Also Terrorists in Florida and the American connection is a Falwell crony, Wally Hilliard. http://www.madcowprod.com.

        •  yawn (none / 0)

          it was a gas pipeline, and it made no economic sense and was therefore abandoned.
          •  A unique perspective (none / 1)

            TESTIMONY

            BY

            JOHN J. MARESCA

            VICE PRESIDENT, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

            UNOCAL CORPORATION

            TO

            HOUSE COMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

            SUBCOMMITTEE ON ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

            FEBRUARY 12, 1998

            WASHINGTON, D.C.

            The Caspian region contains tremendous untapped hydrocarbon reserves, much of them located in the Caspian Sea basin itself. Proven natural gas reserves within Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan equal more than 236 trillion cubic feet. The region's total oil reserves may reach more than 60 billion barrels of oil -- enough to service Europe's oil needs for 11 years. Some estimates are as high as 200 billion barrels. In 1995, the region was producing only 870,000 barrels per day (44 million tons per year [Mt/y]).

            By 2010, Western companies could increase production to about 4.5 million barrels a day (Mb/d) -- an increase of more than 500 percent in only 15 years. If this occurs, the region would represent about five percent of the world's total oil production, and almost 20 percent of oil produced among non-OPEC countries.

            One major problem has yet to be resolved: how to get the region's vast energy resources to the markets where they are needed. There are few, if any, other areas of the world where there can be such a dramatic increase in the supply of oil and gas to the world market. The solution seems simple: build a "new" Silk Road. Implementing this solution, however, is far from simple. The risks are high, but so are the rewards.

            Finding and Building Routes to World Markets

            One of the main problems is that Central Asia is isolated. The region is bounded on the north by the Arctic Circle, on the east and west by vast land distances, and on the south by a series of natural obstacles -- mountains and seas -- as well as political obstacles, such as conflict zones or sanctioned countries.

            This means that the area's natural resources are landlocked, both geographically and politically. Each of the countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia faces difficult political challenges. Some have unsettled wars or latent conflicts. Others have evolving systems where the laws -- and even the courts -- are dynamic and changing. Business commitments can be rescinded without warning, or they can be displaced by new geopolitical realities.

            In addition, a chief technical obstacle we face in transporting oil is the region's existing pipeline infrastructure. Because the region's pipelines were constructed during the Moscow-centered Soviet period, they tend to head north and west toward Russia. There are no connections to the south and east.

            Depending wholly on this infrastructure to export Central Asia oil is not practical. Russia currently is unlikely to absorb large new quantities of "foreign" oil, is unlikely to be a significant market for energy in the next decade, and lacks the capacity to deliver it to other markets.

            Certainly there is no easy way out of Central Asia. If there are to be other routes, in other directions, they must be built.

            Two major energy infrastructure projects are seeking to meet this challenge. One, under the aegis of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, or CPC, plans to build a pipeline west from the Northern Caspian to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossisk. From Novorossisk, oil from this line would be transported by tanker through the Bosphorus to the Mediterranean and world markets.

            The other project is sponsored by the Azerbaijan International Operating Company (AIOC), a consortium of 11 foreign oil companies including four American companies -- Unocal, Amoco, Exxon and Pennzoil. It will follow one or both of two routes west from Baku. One line will angle north and cross the North Caucasus to Novorossisk. The other route would cross Georgia and extend to a shipping terminal on the Black Sea port of Supsa. This second route may be extended west and south across Turkey to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan.

            But even if both pipelines were built, they would not have enough total capacity to transport all the oil expected to flow from the region in the future; nor would they have the capability to move it to the right markets. Other export pipelines must be built.

            Unocal believes that the central factor in planning these pipelines should be the location of the future energy markets that are most likely to need these new supplies. Just as Central Asia was the meeting ground between Europe and Asia in centuries past, it is again in a unique position to potentially service markets in both of these regions -- if export routes to these markets can be built. Let's take a look at some of the potential markets.

            http://www.totse.com/en/politics/the_world_beyond_the_usa/162013.html

            A complete timeline: http://www.cooperativeresearch.org/timeline.jsp?timeline=complete_911_timeline&theme=oil

            May, during a solemn pipe-laying ceremony for the start of the Georgian stretch of the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan pipeline (BTC), Georgia oil executive Georgy Chantiurua said: "This was the start of the integration of Georgia into the NATO zone ... this pipeline will become an artery feeding energy to the US and European countries."

            The US$3.6 billion oilfield and pipeline development project involves a 1,767 kilometer pipeline, the world's longest, snaking from Baku through Georgia to a new terminal at Ceyhan on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

            The elder Aliyev said that the relationship between Georgia and Azerbaijan was a model, and he hoped that "in 2005 the presidents of the two countries will take part in the ceremony to load the first tanker from Ceyhan with Caspian oil". Little did he know that he and his great friend Shevardnadze would miss it: one of them is now dead and the other has been toppled. And no one at the moment is even betting that the main actors at the 2005 ceremony will be the younger Alyev and "Misha" Saakashvili, now at the interim helm in Georgia.

            BTC and the regional context

            The New Silk Road - as far as Washington is concerned - could be summarized by one acronym: BTC. The pipeline will be a massive snake: 443 kilometers in Azerbaijan, 248 kilometers in Georgia and 1,076 kilometers in Turkey. Its projected capacity is 50 million tons per annum. The plan is to start exporting Azerbaijani oil from the Turkish port of Ceyhan to Western markets by the second quarter of 2005. BTC has become a true American obsession. According to the official version in Baku of the consortium building the pipeline, led by British oil giant BP, 25 percent of the construction is already finished. The Azerbaijani stretch should be finished by September 2004, the Georgian by October and the Turkish by December.

            Asia Times 12 part series on Central Asia: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/EL24Ag01.html

            •  key point (none / 0)

              neither of these go through afghanistan.
              •  Afghanistan (none / 1)

                is on the other side of the Caspian.

                Delivering oil to Europe is one thing, supplying China, Japan and India are quite another. Japan seeks Iranian oil as does China.

                And how do we know how much energy is needed anywhere? Well, we know because of the careful analysis and deep research done by highly qualified and highly placed people in government circles. Consider the detailed work that was done to justify the Central Asia Gas Pipeline, and to gain World Bank funding. Now here was a project to behold. Set aside the fact that we couldn't get the pipeline project moved forward and funded with the Taliban in charge. Set aside the current maneuverings of the United States puppet in Kabul, former UNOCAL consultant Hamid Karzai, to do what the Taliban couldn't. Hold the cynicism for a second, and try to understand how American politicians and their closest friends know just what energy is needed, why, when and how, anywhere in the world.

                While holding that cynicism, also try to forget real world market factors. Lack of security remains a primary barrier to global funding for the trans-Afghanistan pipeline, but it is not the only one. Oil and gas prices, and the existence of other functional outlets for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan gas are also factors. The current deal in the works includes Pakistan, with an option to go to India. Because Washington experts and insiders from the AEI to the White House so enjoy pronouncing who needs what energy, why, when and how, it is enlightening to look at the original pipeline project, which from the beginning included India.

                The original project called for an extension of the pipeline across Pakistan into India, to the city of Dabhol. Dabhol is significant, because it is the site of the idle Dabhol Power Project, brought to you by the equally idle and definitely uglier Enron Corporation.

                A major "selling point" of the original project was to provide cheap gas to run Enron's $3 billion power plant. If you want the timeline, it is really good reading.

                I use this example to show you how U.S. government key players, whether Clinton Era or Dubya era, play the game of market oracle. For India, gas-driven Enron turbines would produce almost 3000 MW of power to local Indian economy. Power that, had it been produced, would have profited very little, given the sorry state of national electrification and central energy management in India. A scientific (as opposed to political/fund-raising) branch of the U.S. government reports,

                ...all of [India State Electricity Boards] are bankrupt ... Almost all of this is due to power theft (often referred to as "non-technical losses") and a pricing structure that heavily subsidizes agriculture. Of all the electricity generated in India, only about 55% is even billed and slightly more than 40% is regularly paid for.

                Uncle Sam "Slick" and Auntie Beltway "Backshish" actually understand nothing about who needs what energy, and couldn't care less. But they do understand precisely what they and their cronies need to do to profit from publicly funded monstrosities, domestically and globally. And if they can't profit from it the easy way, then threats and military deployments are in order. Enter George W. Bush, rainmaker extraordinaire. Tehran understands perfectly what went on in Afghanistan, and what is going on in Afghanistan today. Map the U.S. military bases against the pipeline map, and you see that the U.S. fascism - muscular national socialism - is on the march. Thus neo-fascist mouthpieces everywhere opine, "Why do they need nuclear power built by Russian contractors, when they could have Enron and Halliburton and Bechtel with U.S. military protection work on a nice publicly funded gas fueled electrical plant for them?"

                http://www.lewrockwell.com/kwiatkowski/kwiatkowski56.html

                Please click over and read this article by Kwiatkowski. She is a Pentagon whistleblower that exposed Cheney's secret team and the neo fascist culture of the Bush/Cheney Pentagon. She knows what she's talking about and embeds tons of links that I am too lazy to transpose.

                •  she's a loon, and so is lew rockwell (none / 0)

                  And even if what she says is true about the pipelines, I just don't see what's so evil about it. The bottom line is that we went into Afghanistan because that's where Al Qaeda was. If they get a source of foreign exchange out of the deal, it will help the country. These people have almost no means of developing their economy. What would be so wrong about the pipeline?
                  •  The Pipeline (none / 0)

                    is just a thing. The Realpolitik behind it is treason. Especially if you believe the myth of Al-Qa'Ida and bin Laden spun by all in Washington.

                    Call Jerry Bruckheimer! This is the stuff Hollywood is made of - and also the stuff of debacles such as Jimmy Carter's attempted rescue of US hostages in Iran. Any Mujahid worth his Kalashnikov in Afghanistan these days - up to commander Ahmadshah Masoud himself - is on the record as saying that Cruise missile attacks will cause no damage whatsoever to the already ravaged country.

                    Officially, Musharraf has rejected his support for this latest Hollywood ploy, and has been frantically trying to convince the Americans any brutal action against Osama or his so-called "terrorist sanctuaries" will fuel a radical Islamic backlash in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia of "burn, baby, burn" proportions. It doesn't matter that the strike would have the full approval of the United Nations and the G-8 countries - this would be an added reason for a series of Islamic counter-strikes across the industrialized world.

                    Under an army of spinners, this nifty "George W does Rambo" number will be played to the galleries as one of the latest American foreign policy initiatives concerning Afghanistan. It's no secret America wants even more sanctions against the Taliban - and maybe against Pakistan. But as many people either in the Pashto belt on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border or in the Tajik-speaking areas have been saying out loud for months, there is no Western policy concerning Afghanistan - except the UN sanctions, which among others, call on the Taliban to hand over bin Laden.

                    08/30/2001
                    http://www.atimes.com/ind-pak/CH30Df01.html

                    There's more to the picture than meets the eye:

                    March 4, 1999
                    U.S. Says Osama bin Laden has had falling out with Taliban
                    By TIM WEINER

                    [...]

                    Most of the Taliban officials and the three senior American officials who discussed the situation demanded anonymity, but all gave similar accounts of the breach between bin Laden and the Taliban.

                    On Feb. 10, they said, bin Laden's bodyguards became furious when a group of 10 or more Taliban officers tried to replace them. By one account, automatic weapons were fired.

                    After the fight, "bin Laden found himself in a confined and difficult situation," said Mujahid, the Taliban's representative-designate at the United Nations.

                    Three days later, the Taliban leadership formally replaced bin Laden's bodyguards with members of their intelligence service and foreign ministry, instructing their men to keep bin Laden from public view, the officials said.

                    "Our leadership decided to cut all communications from him, and even his telephone set has been taken from him," Mujahid said. "He has been told no foreigner can talk to him. Ten bodyguards were provided for him. The duty of the bodyguards was to supervise him and observe that he will not contact any foreigner or use any communication system in Afghanistan. He is now isolated."

                    The fight broke out over the degree of control the Taliban would have over bin Laden, another Taliban representative said.

                    It came a week after Karl F. Inderfurth, an Assistant Secretary of State, met in Pakistan with Jalil Akhund, the Taliban's deputy foreign minister, and repeated American demands to turn over bin Laden.

                    The Taliban, citing Islamic law and Afghan custom, say they cannot expel him.

                    "The situation is a puzzle for the Afghan leadership," Mujahid said. "In World War II, we couldn't hand over German citizens living in Afghanistan to the Allied forces. Regarding Osama bin Laden, if we would do something in this regard, it is totally against the Afghan character." bin Laden is considered a hero in Afghanistan for his financial and military support of the Afghan rebels, who defeated Soviet invaders in the 1980's.

                    "On the other side," said Mujahid, "his presence is not a benefit to the people of Afghanistan."

                    The Taliban, a radical Islamic movement with few friends among nations, desperately wants international recognition and foreign aid. It will receive little while it shelters bin Laden.

                    Though mutual mistrust complicates any cooperation, and some senior American intelligence officials are not convinced that the Taliban will ever betray bin Laden, the Taliban's leaders have at least three ways to deal with him that would be acceptable to the United States, senior American officials said.

                    They could arrange secretly for members of another nation's intelligence service to learn of his whereabouts in Afghanistan.

                    They could deliver him discreetly to a neighboring country, where American law-enforcement and intelligence officers could try to apprehend him.

                    Or they could keep bin Laden incommunicado in the hope that he might fade as a source of anti-American terrorism.

                    Some American officials think this last solution the best, since it holds no risk of making bin Laden a martyr, which could inspire fresh attacks against the United States from his followers.

                    http://www.samsloan.com/ladental.htm

                    Now before you go off on Sam Sloane's server (I have no idea who he is,) recognize that Weiner is a Pullitzer Prize winning journalist.

  •  For those who...